Dozens of antibody tests for the novel coronavirus have become available in recent weeks. And early results from studies of such serological assays in the U.S. and around the world have swept headlines. Despite optimism about these tests possibly becoming the key to a return to normal life, experts say the reality is complicated and depends on how results are used.
Antibody tests could help scientists understand the extent of COVID-19’s spread in populations. Because of limitations in testing accuracy and a plethora of unknowns about immunity itself, however, they are less informative about an individual’s past exposure or protection against future infection.
“The focus right now is primarily epidemiological,” says Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at the Kent State University College of Public Health. That approach means trying to figure out the percentage of the population that has already been infected even if some individuals never showed symptoms. “This will allow us to better calculate the fatality rate and to determine how far we still have to go to reach [infection] levels that would place us in the range of herd immunity,” or when a large proportion of a population has become immune to a disease because of vaccination or past infection, she says. “It will also allow us to start looking at duration of immunity.”
Antibody tests could help scientists understand the extent of COVID-19’s spread in populations. Because of limitations in testing accuracy and a plethora of unknowns about immunity itself, however, they are less informative about an individual’s past exposure or protection against future infection.
“The focus right now is primarily epidemiological,” says Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at the Kent State University College of Public Health. That approach means trying to figure out the percentage of the population that has already been infected even if some individuals never showed symptoms. “This will allow us to better calculate the fatality rate and to determine how far we still have to go to reach [infection] levels that would place us in the range of herd immunity,” or when a large proportion of a population has become immune to a disease because of vaccination or past infection, she says. “It will also allow us to start looking at duration of immunity.”
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